GPW swing screen — Monday 12 October 2026 (1-month horizon)
Data: 50 sessions 3 Aug–9 Oct (biznesradar notowania-historyczne/<TIC>?r=12) + 12 Oct prices at about 14:10 (~15 min delay). Dividend-adjusted: LPP −500 (ex-date 8 Oct), BFT −100 (ex-date 4 Sep).
TOP 3 right now
1ALEA80
- Price
- 52.02
- Entry
- 50.40–51.20
- Stop
- 49.40
- Targets T1 / T2
- 54.10 / 57.30
- R
- 2.4 / 4.6
Quarterly results: 12 Nov
2LPPA77
- Price
- 25,400
- Entry
- 24,600–24,900
- Stop
- 24,100
- Targets T1 / T2
- 26,000 / 27,000
- R
- 1.9 / 3.5
Quarterly results: 3 Dec
3BFTB74
- Price
- 5,480
- Entry
- 5,300–5,400
- Stop
- 5,180
- Targets T1 / T2
- 5,595 / 5,900
- R
- 1.4 / 3.2
Quarterly results: 19 Nov
Regime
- WIG20 on 9 Oct: 4,185.52; 12 Oct 14:11: 4,205.27 (+0.47%), 0.9% below ATH 4,241.58 (22 Sep). SMA20 4,157, SMA50 4,081, RSI 57.
- Banks: WIG-Banki −2.4% (7 Oct) and −2.6% (8 Oct); PKO and PEO closed below SMA50 on above-average volume. Millennium: provision for legal risk on FX loans of PLN 154 million in Q3; bounce on 12 Oct (PKO +2%, MBK +2.5%, EBP +3.4%).
- Leaders: consumer (LPP, ALE, DNP, BFT), PGE (parabolic), CDR. PKN −3.1% on 12 Oct (windfall tax).
- MPC 7 Oct: 3.75%, unchanged. US 9 Oct: S&P 7,811.54 (+0.6%), Nasdaq 27,366 (+0.6%), Russell 2,807 (+0.5%).
- Conclusion: neutral-to-positive, but nothing is in the entry zone at 12 Oct prices — leaders are at new highs. Limit orders on retests, not buying at market.
Ranking (R from the midpoint of the zone)
| # | Tic | Price | From high | RSI | Fund/30 | Tech/70 | Total | Class | Entry | Stop | T1 | T2 | R | Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALE | 52.02 | ATH | 68 | 23 | 57 | 80 | A (retest) | 50.40–51.20 | 49.40 | 54.10 | 57.30 | 2.4 / 4.6 | 12 Nov |
| 2 | LPP | 25,400 | ATH | 70 | 23 | 54 | 77 | A (retest) | 24,600–24,900 | 24,100 | 26,000 | 27,000 | 1.9 / 3.5 | 3 Dec |
| 3 | BFT | 5,480 | −2.1% adj. | 63 | 21 | 53 | 74 | B (breakout retest) | 5,300–5,400 | 5,180 | 5,595 | 5,900 | 1.4 / 3.2 | 19 Nov |
| 4 | DNP | 36.31 | −2.8% | 59 | 19 | 51 | 70 | C (reversal from base) | 35.30–35.80 | 34.30 | 37.70 | 40.00 | 1.7 / 3.6 | 5 Nov |
| 5 | KGH | 350.80 | −7.2% | 56 | 22 | 44 | 66 | B trigger | >356.10 | 324 | 378 | 394.7 | 1.0 / 1.6 (from price) | 18 Nov |
| 6 | CBF | 200.80 | −5.9% | 51 | 19 | 44 | 63 | C | 199–202 | 194 | 213.4 | 222.8 | 2.0 / 3.4 | 16 Nov |
| 7 | EBP | 794.20 | −1.7% | 57 | 21 | 42 | 63 | B trigger | >808.8 | 760 | 840 | 870 | — | 30 Oct |
| 8 | CDR | 265.80 | ~0% (50 sessions) | 66 | 16 | 44 | 60 | B trigger | >269 | 252 | 285 | 297 | — | 24 Nov |
| 9 | MBK | 1,437 | −5.9% | 50 | 22 | 37 | 59 | B trigger | >1,460 | 1,385 | 1,526 | 1,600 | — | 28–29 Oct |
| 10 | ACP | 225.50 | −6.8% | 53 | 20 | 37 | 57 | sideways | >229.5 | 216.5 | 241.9 | 258 | — | 26 Nov |
Charts from the ranking
Score ranking
Total points split into fundamentals and the rest of the score (0–100).
Risk and reward map
Stop, entry zone and targets as a deviation from the last price (first 6 setups with a full set of levels).
Reward-to-risk
R to target 1 and target 2 measured from the middle of the entry zone; the framework prefers at least about 1:2.
No earnings report within 14 days (EBP on 30 Oct = 18 days, MBK on 28–29 Oct = 16–17 days — within the one-month horizon).
TOP 3
- ALE — breakout from the 6 Oct flag, retest on 8 Oct (low 49.49 at the PLN 50 buyback limit), 9 Oct +2.6% on 3.7M (highest volume in 7 sessions), 12 Oct new high 52.02. Buy the 50.4–51.2 retest; above 52 only 0.8R to T1.
- LPP — after the dividend day the 8 Oct retest of 24,200 held, 12 Oct record 25,400. Limit 24,600–24,900.
- BFT — breakout from the 4,994–5,160 base on 6 Oct on 2.0× volume, 7–8 Oct retest above SMA20 (5,129), 12 Oct +2.9%. Limit 5,300–5,400.
Watchlist
- DNP — 8 Oct +6.4% on 7.2M (2.4×) from the 32.95 low (false breakdown), SMA20/50 reclaimed; buy the 35.3–35.8 pullback, stop 34.30.
- KGH — close >356.10 on >0.77M shares; stop 324 (below the 8 Oct low of 325.00).
- EBP — close >808.8 on >74k shares; stop 760.
- CDR — close >269 on >400k shares; stop 252.
- MBK — return above SMA20 ~1,456 and a close >1,460; stop 1,385.
Rejected
- PKO (113.94 < SMA50 116.33, RSI 37), PEO (261.10 < SMA50 264.35) — distribution in the sector, wait for SMA50 to be reclaimed.
- PKN — 60% tax on windfall profits, −3.1% on 12 Oct.
- ASB (RSI 71, +74% in 49 sessions), PGE (RSI 74, +60%) — parabolic, no pullback.
Review of 7 Oct
- ALE (A−, entry 50.40–51.40, stop 49.60): low 49.49 (8 Oct) — stop breached intraday by 0.11, close 50.43 above the stop; 52.02 on 12 Oct.
- CBF (C, 201–204, stop 196): 8 Oct close 196.00 = stop; 200.80 on 12 Oct.
- LPP (retest 24,200–24,500 from 8 Oct): filled on 8 Oct (low 24,200), 25,400 on 12 Oct (+4%).
Method
- Python: SMA20/50, EMA20, Wilder RSI14, MACD(12,26,9), hi50, lo10, vol5/20, RS vs WIG20 over 20/49 sessions. SMA100/200 still unavailable.
- Biznesradar tickers redirect: PEO→PEKAO, MBK→MBANK, EBP (ERSTEPL), KGH→KGHM, ACP→ASSECO-POLAND, CDR→CD-PROJEKT, PKN→ORLEN, ASB→ASBISC, BFT→BENEFIT-SYSTEMS.
Screening exercise under the given framework, not investment advice.